January 26, 2018

Causal Claims, continued

Deterministic claims

So far…

Claims about what will happen with certainty under particular causal conditions.

Examples:

  • Necessary conditions
  • Sufficient conditions
  • Conjunctural causality
  • Multiple causality
  • Conjunctural and multiple causality

Deterministic claims

Key implication:

  • Effect cannot happen when cause(s) is(are) absent
  • Effect must happen when cause(s) are present

Do we always want to make these claims?

  • Democracy and economic development

An example: 1966

An example: 1986

An example: 2006

An example: 2016

Trends in democracy

Global economic growth

Democracy causes growth?

Seems plausible

Why?

Growth in democracies/vs non democracies

But:

What can we see?

Yes:

  • lots of rich democracies
  • lots of poor autocracies

but

  • Democracies with low GDP per capita
  • Autocracies that are wealthy

Nevertheless

Looks positive to me!

Another example:

Voter turn out:

  • Low in many countries
  • Low in many local, off-year elections.

How can you get people to vote?

Shaming?

Why shaming?

Inspire sense of duty;

Want to be seen as doing the right thing

Does it work?

Does it work?

But

not everyone voted

In these two examples

1. Democracy and economic growth:

  • Democracy is a necessary condition for economic growth

  • Democracy is a sufficient condition for economic growth

  • Democracy makes economic growth more likely?

2. Shaming and voter turnout

  • Shaming eligible voters is a necessary condition for turnout

  • Shaming eligible voters is a sufficient condition for turnout

  • Shaming eligible voters makes turnout more likely?

In contrast to deterministic claims:

Probabilistic causal claims:

Claim that the presence of a cause makes an effect more (or less) likely

  • Effect can happen with cause is absent
  • Effect may not happen when cause is present

Example:

Legacies of imperialism

Long term effects of colonizing

What kind of imperialism?

  • Resource extraction \(\xrightarrow{weak-property-rights}\) Poor growth
  • Settlement \(\xrightarrow{property-protected}\) Good growth

Settler mortality and growth

But…

Not entirely deterministic

  • Would expect every country along the same line
  • Instead, e.g., Ethiopia has low mortality but low growth

Also, other costs of colonialism?

  • Economists ignore the human cost

Settler mortality and growth

Deterministic causal claim:

High(low) settler mortality is sufficient to cause low(high) economic growth

Probabilistic causal claim:

Higher settler mortality during the colonial error makes it more(less) likely that countries have low(high) growth today.

Deterministic vs Probabilistic

Deterministic causal claim (necessary condition)

For two countries with competing to go to war, at least one of them must not be a democracy

Probabilistic causal claim

When two countries have competing interests, one of them being non-democratic makes war more likely

Which is a probabilistic causal claim?

A) It's probably true that leftwing government reduce student tuition fees

B) Having a leftwing, rather than rightwing, government makes it more likely that tuition fees wil be reduced

C) Leftwing governments are more likely to reduce tuition fees than rightwing governments

Which is a probabilistic causal claim?

A) It's probably true that leftwing government reduce student tuition fees

B) Having a leftwing, rather than rightwing, government makes it more likely that tuition fees wil be reduced

C) Leftwing governments are more likely to reduce tuition fees than rightwing governments

From deterministic to probabilistic

Oppression is a necessary condition for rebellion.

  • "Oppression makes rebellion more likely to occur."

Democracy cannot emerge without a large middle class

  • "The absence of a large middle class reduces the likelihood that democracy will emerge"

Recognizing probabilistic causal claims

Not every probabilistic statement is causal

1. "Oppression is more likely to cause a rebellion"

  • Says oppression is probably a cause out rebellion
  • Should say: cause \(A\) changes likelihood of outcome \(B\)

2. "A rebellion is more likely to occur if the population is oppressed"

  • Says we are more likely to see rebellion where population is oppressed
  • Not clearly causal; just a descriptive claim.

Why probabilistic causal claims?

Sometimes unnecessary:

In some situations, life is deterministic:

  • E.g., gravity
  • Does this apply to humans?

Tic-tac-toe

Where will \(O\) go?

X . O
. X .
. . .

Predictability

Social/political interactions/choices predictable when:

  1. Rules/institutions are present
  2. Goal-oriented behavior
  • material incentives, costs, benefits
  1. Strategic interaction
  2. Resource constraints
  3. Known cognitive biases

Tic-tac-toe

Where will \(O\) go?

. . .
. X .
. . .

Why probabilistic causal claims?

Sometimes unnecessary:

BUT

Human choice not perfectly predictable:

  1. Humans make random error?
  2. Free will?

Triggering Events:

Triggering Events:

Identified structural causes of WWI:

  • But trigger was needed!
  • Could only say war was likely, not when or where

Like conjunctural causation?

  • Structural cause and trigger necessary
  • But triggers are idiosyncratic, unknowable

Interlude: Coin flips:

Interlude: Coin flips:

Why probabilistic causal claims?

Sometimes unnecessary:

but

Human choice not perfectly predictable:

  1. Humans make random error?

  2. Free will?

Causal complexity

  • Many causal factors that are unknown
    • multiple necessary conditions
    • conditional causal effects
  • Creates appearance of randomness

Causes of democratization

Country Growth Democratize?
A Yes Yes
B Yes No
C Yes No
D Yes No
E No No

Causes of democratization

Country Growth Middle class Democratize?
A Yes Yes Yes
B Yes Yes No
C Yes Yes No
D Yes No No
E No Yes No

Causes of democratization

Country Growth Middle class Pressure Democratize?
A Yes Yes Yes Yes
B Yes Yes No No
C Yes Yes Yes No
D Yes No Yes No
E No Yes Yes No

Causes of voter turnout

Person Shame Vote?
A Yes Yes
B Yes Yes
C Yes No
D No Yes
E No No
F No No

Causes of voter turnout

Person Shame Degree Vote?
A Yes Yes Yes
B Yes No Yes
C Yes No No
D No Yes Yes
E No No No
F No No No

Causes of voter turnout

Person Shame Degree Urban Vote?
A Yes Yes Yes Yes
B Yes No Yes Yes
C Yes No No No
D No Yes Yes Yes
E No No Yes No
F No No No No

Why probabilistic causal claims?

Do not need to assert social world is fundamentally random.

Causal complexity

Conjunctural causation + many causes:

  • Multiple necessary conditions abound
  • Conditional effects abound
  • Additional conditions are unknown/too many to count

Complexity makes certainty impossible really hard

Systematic and Random

Social life has both:

  • systematic/deterministic component
  • "random" or probabilistic component

Example:

  1. In a jar with twice as many red balls as green, what is probability of pulling a red?
  2. In a jar with four times as many green balls as red, what is probability of pulling a red?

Systematic and Random

Systematic component:

Number of balls of each type

Random component:

Process of blindly grabbing creates uncertainty

Systematic and Random

Democracy and growth:

  • Increasing democracy like adding "growth"-colored balls in the jar (systematic)
  • Complex/conjunctural causation is like process of pulling from the jar (random/probabilistic)

Shaming and voter turnout

  • Shaming someone is like adding "turnout"-colored balls to the jar (systematic)
  • Complex/conjunctural causation is process of pulling from the jar (random/probabilistic)

Triggering events vs. Random causes

Triggering Event:

  • Works conditional on structural/systematic causes (conjunctural causation)
  • Trigger by itself has little causal effect

Random cause:

  • Produces an effect independent of structural causes
  • E.g.: highly-educated, high-income citizen does not vote because of the flu

Specific vs. General knowledge

Rwandan Civil War

Causes of Rwandan Civil War

Case-specific

  • Belgian colonial policies on race
  • Hutu-Tutsi ethnic rivalry
  • Tutsi exiles/refugees

General:

Of what is Rwandan Civil war a case/instance/example?

  • Genocide?
  • Civil war?
  • Revolution/regime change?

Causes of Rwandan Civil War

General

Civil War:

  • Compare Rwanda to many other places that could have had civil wars
  • Maybe general causes are:
    • colonial race/ethnic policies (in general)
    • ethnic diversity (in general)

Specific vs General Knowledge

Specific

What caused the rise of the right-wing nationalist party Fidesz in Hungary?

  • Corruption of predecessor leftwing governments
  • Lack of economic growth in Hungary after joining EU
  • Large number of migrants fleeing to Europe from Middle East/Africa

Explains one case

Specific vs General Knowledge

General

What causes ethno-nationalist parties to become powerful?

  • Threat to status of dominant ethnic group
  • Loss of control over policy to international organizations/other countries

Explains a class of phenomena

Specific vs General Knowledge

Specific

What caused inequality in Canada to rise?

  • Tax cuts by Liberals and PCs
  • Weakness of labor unions

General

What causes inequality to rise in capitalist economies?

  • Weakening the political power of lower-income groups
  • Reducing government tools to redistribute wealth

Moving from specific to general:

  • Remove proper nouns (subject/objects of causes/effects are general)
  • Change in tense
    • specific \(\xrightarrow{}\) past tense
    • general \(\xrightarrow{}\) present tense
  • Cause, effect, context are conceptual, not concrete cases

Moving from specific to general:

Specific:

Laws that eased restrictions on gun purchases in Missouri in 2006 caused an increase the state's homicide rate.

General

  1. Cause: Missouri law \(\xrightarrow{}\) Laws that reduce barriers to gun availability
  2. Effect: Missouri homicide rate \(\xrightarrow{}\) homicide rates
  3. Context: Missouri \(\xrightarrow{}\) places with effective governments

What is this a case of?

What is the specific claim?

Soviet pro-Semitic policies caused (cause)

better treatment of Jews (effect)

in Transnistria versus Bessarabia in WWII (context)

Which is the general cause?

What are "Soviet pro-semitic policies" instance of?

  • Policies to promote religious tolerance?

  • Policies to integrate minority group?

  • Multicultural policy?

What is the general effect?

What is "better treatment of Jews" a case of?

  • Treatment of minority religious group by majority?

  • Behavior of dominant ethnic group during genocide?

  • Behavior of dominant ethnic group during foreign occupation?

  • Degree of ethnic/religious conflict?

What is the general context?

What is the context of Romania in WWII a case of?

  • Occupied country during war?

  • Country in midst of genocide?

  • New country that unifies an ethnic homeland?

Specific to General to Specific

Building and testing theory

  • Specific cases generate insights/ideas about general phenomena

  • General theories tested against specific cases

  • General theories help explain specific cases

From Specific to General

Why do civil wars/insurgencies happen?

From Specific to General

From Specific to General

From Specific to General

From Specific to General

From Specific to General

Rough, mountainous terrain enables insurgency

  • Costly for government/occupiers to maintain presence
  • Easy to hide
  • Locals know/use the land

From General to Specific

From General to Specific

Can we explain civil/war insurgency in Afghanistan?

From General to Specific

From General to Specific

From General to Specific

From General to Specific