January 26, 2018
Claims about what will happen with certainty under particular causal conditions.
Looks positive to me!
Democracy is a necessary condition for economic growth
Democracy is a sufficient condition for economic growth
Shaming eligible voters is a necessary condition for turnout
Shaming eligible voters is a sufficient condition for turnout
Claim that the presence of a cause makes an effect more (or less) likely
Long term effects of colonizing
What kind of imperialism?
High(low) settler mortality is sufficient to cause low(high) economic growth
Higher settler mortality during the colonial error makes it more(less) likely that countries have low(high) growth today.
For two countries with competing to go to war, at least one of them must not be a democracy
When two countries have competing interests, one of them being non-democratic makes war more likely
Not every probabilistic statement is causal
In some situations, life is deterministic:
Where will \(O\) go?
| X | . | O |
| . | X | . |
| . | . | . |
Social/political interactions/choices predictable when:
Where will \(O\) go?
| . | . | . |
| . | X | . |
| . | . | . |
Human choice not perfectly predictable:
Identified structural causes of WWI:
but
Humans make random error?
Free will?
| Country | Growth | Democratize? |
|---|---|---|
| A | Yes | Yes |
| B | Yes | No |
| C | Yes | No |
| D | Yes | No |
| E | No | No |
| Country | Growth | Middle class | Democratize? |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| B | Yes | Yes | No |
| C | Yes | Yes | No |
| D | Yes | No | No |
| E | No | Yes | No |
| Country | Growth | Middle class | Pressure | Democratize? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| B | Yes | Yes | No | No |
| C | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
| D | Yes | No | Yes | No |
| E | No | Yes | Yes | No |
| Person | Shame | Vote? |
|---|---|---|
| A | Yes | Yes |
| B | Yes | Yes |
| C | Yes | No |
| D | No | Yes |
| E | No | No |
| F | No | No |
| Person | Shame | Degree | Vote? |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| B | Yes | No | Yes |
| C | Yes | No | No |
| D | No | Yes | Yes |
| E | No | No | No |
| F | No | No | No |
| Person | Shame | Degree | Urban | Vote? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| B | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| C | Yes | No | No | No |
| D | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| E | No | No | Yes | No |
| F | No | No | No | No |
Do not need to assert social world is fundamentally random.
Conjunctural causation + many causes:
Social life has both:
Number of balls of each type
Process of blindly grabbing creates uncertainty
Of what is Rwandan Civil war a case/instance/example?
Civil War:
What caused the rise of the right-wing nationalist party Fidesz in Hungary?
Explains one case
What causes ethno-nationalist parties to become powerful?
Explains a class of phenomena
What caused inequality in Canada to rise?
What causes inequality to rise in capitalist economies?
Laws that eased restrictions on gun purchases in Missouri in 2006 caused an increase the state's homicide rate.
Policies to promote religious tolerance?
Policies to integrate minority group?
Multicultural policy?
Treatment of minority religious group by majority?
Behavior of dominant ethnic group during genocide?
Behavior of dominant ethnic group during foreign occupation?
Degree of ethnic/religious conflict?
Occupied country during war?
Country in midst of genocide?
New country that unifies an ethnic homeland?
Specific cases generate insights/ideas about general phenomena
General theories tested against specific cases
General theories help explain specific cases
Why do civil wars/insurgencies happen?