Investigating Politics

January 26, 2018

Causal Claims, continued

Deterministic claims

So far…

Claims about what will happen with certainty under particular causal conditions.

Examples:

Necessary conditions
Sufficient conditions
Conjunctural causality
Multiple causality
Conjunctural and multiple causality

Deterministic claims

Key implication:

Effect cannot happen when cause(s) is(are) absent
Effect must happen when cause(s) are present

Do we always want to make these claims?

Democracy and economic development

An example: 1966

An example: 1986

An example: 2006

An example: 2016

Trends in democracy

Global economic growth

Democracy causes growth?

Seems plausible

Why?

Growth in democracies/vs non democracies

But:

What can we see?

Yes:

lots of rich democracies
lots of poor autocracies

but

Democracies with low GDP per capita
Autocracies that are wealthy

Nevertheless

Looks positive to me!

Another example:

Voter turn out:

Low in many countries
Low in many local, off-year elections.

How can you get people to vote?

Shaming?

Why shaming?

Inspire sense of duty;

Want to be seen as doing the right thing

Does it work?

But

not everyone voted

In these two examples

1. Democracy and economic growth:

~~Democracy is a necessary condition for economic growth~~
~~Democracy is a sufficient condition for economic growth~~

Democracy makes economic growth more likely?

2. Shaming and voter turnout

~~Shaming eligible voters is a necessary condition for turnout~~
~~Shaming eligible voters is a sufficient condition for turnout~~

Shaming eligible voters makes turnout more likely?

In contrast to deterministic claims:

Probabilistic causal claims:

Claim that the presence of a cause makes an effect more (or less) likely

Effect can happen with cause is absent
Effect may not happen when cause is present

Example:

Legacies of imperialism

Long term effects of colonizing

What kind of imperialism?

Resource extraction \(\xrightarrow{weak-property-rights}\) Poor growth
Settlement \(\xrightarrow{property-protected}\) Good growth

Settler mortality and growth

But…

Not entirely deterministic

Would expect every country along the same line
Instead, e.g., Ethiopia has low mortality but low growth

Also, other costs of colonialism?

Economists ignore the human cost

Settler mortality and growth

Deterministic causal claim:

~~High(low) settler mortality is sufficient to cause low(high) economic growth~~

Probabilistic causal claim:

Higher settler mortality during the colonial error makes it more(less) likely that countries have low(high) growth today.

Deterministic vs Probabilistic

Deterministic causal claim (necessary condition)

~~For two countries with competing to go to war, at least one of them must not be a democracy~~

Probabilistic causal claim

When two countries have competing interests, one of them being non-democratic makes war more likely

Which is a probabilistic causal claim?

A) It's probably true that leftwing government reduce student tuition fees

B) Having a leftwing, rather than rightwing, government makes it more likely that tuition fees wil be reduced

C) Leftwing governments are more likely to reduce tuition fees than rightwing governments

Which is a probabilistic causal claim?

A) It's probably true that leftwing government reduce student tuition fees

B) Having a leftwing, rather than rightwing, government makes it more likely that tuition fees wil be reduced

C) Leftwing governments are more likely to reduce tuition fees than rightwing governments

From deterministic to probabilistic

Oppression is a necessary condition for rebellion.

"Oppression makes rebellion more likely to occur."

Democracy cannot emerge without a large middle class

"The absence of a large middle class reduces the likelihood that democracy will emerge"

Recognizing probabilistic causal claims

Not every probabilistic statement is causal

1. "Oppression is more likely to cause a rebellion"

Says oppression is probably a cause out rebellion
Should say: cause \(A\) changes likelihood of outcome \(B\)

2. "A rebellion is more likely to occur if the population is oppressed"

Says we are more likely to see rebellion where population is oppressed
Not clearly causal; just a descriptive claim.

Why probabilistic causal claims?

Sometimes unnecessary:

In some situations, life is deterministic:

E.g., gravity

Does this apply to humans?

Tic-tac-toe

Where will \(O\) go?

X	.	O
.	X	.
.	.	.

Predictability

Social/political interactions/choices predictable when:

Rules/institutions are present
Goal-oriented behavior

material incentives, costs, benefits

Strategic interaction
Resource constraints
Known cognitive biases

Tic-tac-toe

Where will \(O\) go?

.	.	.
.	X	.
.	.	.

Why probabilistic causal claims?

Sometimes unnecessary:

BUT

Human choice not perfectly predictable:

Humans make random error?
Free will?

Triggering Events:

Identified structural causes of WWI:

But trigger was needed!
Could only say war was likely, not when or where

Like conjunctural causation?

Structural cause and trigger necessary
But triggers are idiosyncratic, unknowable

Interlude: Coin flips:

Why probabilistic causal claims?

Sometimes unnecessary:

but

Human choice not perfectly predictable:

Humans make random error?
Free will?

Causal complexity

Many causal factors that are unknown
- multiple necessary conditions
- conditional causal effects
Creates appearance of randomness

Causes of democratization

Country	Growth	Democratize?
A	Yes	Yes
B	Yes	No
C	Yes	No
D	Yes	No
E	No	No

Causes of democratization

Country	Growth	Middle class	Democratize?
A	Yes	Yes	Yes
B	Yes	Yes	No
C	Yes	Yes	No
D	Yes	No	No
E	No	Yes	No

Causes of democratization

Country	Growth	Middle class	Pressure	Democratize?
A	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
B	Yes	Yes	No	No
C	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
D	Yes	No	Yes	No
E	No	Yes	Yes	No

Causes of voter turnout

Person	Shame	Vote?
A	Yes	Yes
B	Yes	Yes
C	Yes	No
D	No	Yes
E	No	No
F	No	No

Causes of voter turnout

Person	Shame	Degree	Vote?
A	Yes	Yes	Yes
B	Yes	No	Yes
C	Yes	No	No
D	No	Yes	Yes
E	No	No	No
F	No	No	No

Causes of voter turnout

Person	Shame	Degree	Urban	Vote?
A	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
B	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
C	Yes	No	No	No
D	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
E	No	No	Yes	No
F	No	No	No	No

Why probabilistic causal claims?

Do not need to assert social world is fundamentally random.

Causal complexity

Conjunctural causation + many causes:

Multiple necessary conditions abound
Conditional effects abound
Additional conditions are unknown/too many to count

Complexity makes certainty impossible really hard

Systematic and Random

Social life has both:

systematic/deterministic component
"random" or probabilistic component

Example:

In a jar with twice as many red balls as green, what is probability of pulling a red?
In a jar with four times as many green balls as red, what is probability of pulling a red?

Systematic and Random

Systematic component:

Number of balls of each type

Random component:

Process of blindly grabbing creates uncertainty

Systematic and Random

Democracy and growth:

Increasing democracy like adding "growth"-colored balls in the jar (systematic)
Complex/conjunctural causation is like process of pulling from the jar (random/probabilistic)

Shaming and voter turnout

Shaming someone is like adding "turnout"-colored balls to the jar (systematic)
Complex/conjunctural causation is process of pulling from the jar (random/probabilistic)

Triggering events vs. Random causes

Triggering Event:

Works conditional on structural/systematic causes (conjunctural causation)
Trigger by itself has little causal effect

Random cause:

Produces an effect independent of structural causes
E.g.: highly-educated, high-income citizen does not vote because of the flu

Specific vs. General knowledge

Rwandan Civil War

Causes of Rwandan Civil War

Case-specific

Belgian colonial policies on race
Hutu-Tutsi ethnic rivalry
Tutsi exiles/refugees

General:

Of what is Rwandan Civil war a case/instance/example?

Genocide?
Civil war?
Revolution/regime change?

Causes of Rwandan Civil War

General

Civil War:

Compare Rwanda to many other places that could have had civil wars
Maybe general causes are:
- colonial race/ethnic policies (in general)
- ethnic diversity (in general)

Specific vs General Knowledge

Specific

What caused the rise of the right-wing nationalist party Fidesz in Hungary?

Corruption of predecessor leftwing governments
Lack of economic growth in Hungary after joining EU
Large number of migrants fleeing to Europe from Middle East/Africa

Explains one case

Specific vs General Knowledge

General

What causes ethno-nationalist parties to become powerful?

Threat to status of dominant ethnic group
Loss of control over policy to international organizations/other countries

Explains a class of phenomena

Specific vs General Knowledge

Specific

What caused inequality in Canada to rise?

Tax cuts by Liberals and PCs
Weakness of labor unions

General

What causes inequality to rise in capitalist economies?

Weakening the political power of lower-income groups
Reducing government tools to redistribute wealth

Moving from specific to general:

Remove proper nouns (subject/objects of causes/effects are general)
Change in tense
- specific \(\xrightarrow{}\) past tense
- general \(\xrightarrow{}\) present tense
Cause, effect, context are conceptual, not concrete cases

Moving from specific to general:

Specific:

Laws that eased restrictions on gun purchases in Missouri in 2006 caused an increase the state's homicide rate.

General

Cause: Missouri law \(\xrightarrow{}\) Laws that reduce barriers to gun availability
Effect: Missouri homicide rate \(\xrightarrow{}\) homicide rates
Context: Missouri \(\xrightarrow{}\) places with effective governments

Person	Shame	Degree	Urban	Vote?
A	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
B	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
C	Yes	No	No	No
D	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
E	No	No	Yes	No
F	No	No	No	No

Person	Shame	Degree	Urban	Vote?
A	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
B	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
C	Yes	No	No	No
D	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
E	No	No	Yes	No
F	No	No	No	No

Person	Shame	Degree	Urban	Vote?
A	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
B	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
C	Yes	No	No	No
D	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
E	No	No	Yes	No
F	No	No	No	No